HE SAID: Pettitte is Yanks Playoff Advantage

So, the biggest question heading into the postseason will be how the starting rotation is going to stack up against the opponents'. With the inconsistency of AJ Burnett and the outright ineffectiveness of Joba Chamberlain, many pundits believe that this achilles heel will eventually undercut the team with the best record in MLB. Despite these alleged struggles, the Yankees easily have the best record in the majors over the last two months. When prognosticating the playoffs, you must analyze the game-to-game matchups. Let's assume Detroit holds on to the Central and face the Yanks in the ALDS. Next, we'll assume Boston takes the Wild Card and subsequently ousts the Angels, which happens in October about as frequently as the leaves changing. Looking at the potential head to head matchups, the Yankees rotation may not be in as bad shape as many think.

Game 1, CC Sabathia
CC's playoff struggles are well documented, although quite overblown. Sabathia has made only two playoff appearances, and they were six seasons apart. The small sample size leads me to believe he is better analyzed by the way he is pitching now, rather than as a 21 year old for the 2001 Indians. CC has been one of the best starters in the AL in the second half, leading the league with 17 wins on the season. The most encouraging part of his season is the way he's pitched against the better teams. Along with his memorable near perfect game against Boston, his two worst starts of the season have been against Seattle, a team that will be as far from the playoffs as their home city is from any other MLB team. If CC can take Game 1 of the ALDS against the Tigers, that series is essentially over. With the Kittie's light hitting lineup and porous bullpen, their only hope is for fireballing ace Justin Verlander to steal Game 1 in the Bronx and give his team a lead. After Verlander, this team is a joke (as you will see with their #2 and #3 starters). The ALCS against Boston is a horse of a different color. Depending on how long each of the ALDS series go, the second round may not begin with reset rotations. Assuming it falls in line, Boston will likely make the tragic mistake of annointing Josh Beckett as their Game 1 starter. Despite his past playoff success (save last season), Beckett is NOT Boston's best starter. That man is strikeout lefty John Lester. Beckett has been auditioning to pitch next season's Home Run Derby in the second half, and that does not bode well amidst the right field jetstream in the Bronx. If CC is on, again advantage New York.

Game 2, AJ Burnett
Burnett is the Yankees wild card in this rotation. I slot him in at #2 for a few reasons. As a righty, he can split up the lefties between Sabathia and Pettitte, and give the opposition a different look. The real question will be, which AJ will show up. On any given night, he can be lights out or balls out (of the ballpark that is). In Game 2 of the ALDS against Detroit, I think this game is advantage Yankees. The aforementioned light hitting Tigers will hopefully be shell shocked from a Game 1 loss, and not put up much of a fight against AJ while looking to head home to Detroit. Even more encouraging is that Detroit's #2 starter Edwin Jackson has gone from revelation to revulsion in the second half, getting absolutely rocked for the past month. Even with an inconsistent AJ, the Yankees vastly superior lineup gives them the edge in Game 2. The ALCS is a far different story. Matching up against John Lester is not easy. He has pitched really well all season, especially against the Yankees. Encouraging about this matchup, however, is that it will take place in the Bronx rather than Fenway. After getting knocked around in Boston, Burnett pitched a 1-hit gem against the Red Sox in the Bronx last time around. Depending on which AJ shows up, this game is likely a toss up.

It seems that in both series the Yankees will be favored in the first two games at home. Unless Verlander comes up with a masterpiece and the Yankees can't find the bats, the Tigers don't seem to be much of a threat to come to NY with any wins. As for Boston, the Yankees seem to be safe for a split, even with the tough matchups. If they were very unlucky, like any team, they could be looking at 0-2. The problems for the Yankees seem to arise at the back of the rotation, when the series shift to the road. But upon further inspection, the rotation problems may be even more glaring for the Yankees competition.

Game 3, Andy Pettitte
This is where the Yankees gain an advantage in any series; veteran stopper Andy Pettitte throwing Game 3 on the road. Pettitte has been a breath of fresh air in the second half of the season, including his trademark ace-like August. None of the playoff teams that the Yanks are going to face will have a counterpart as capable, or with the experience of Pettitte. It's looking like Detroit will turn to trade deadline acquisition Jarrod Washburn. To say Washburn has been bad since coming to the Tigers is like saying Detroit is not an ideal vacation destination. Unfortunately for the Tigers, this matchup will likely initiate their Winter vacation since an average to below average Pettitte performance should be enough to top Washburn. Not only is Washburn a poor pitcher facing the best lineup in baseball, but he also has a history of stinking up the joint against the Yankees. As for the ALCS, again, advantage Yankees. You think the Yankees have question marks after their top two, the Red Sox have more question marks than the Riddler's pajamas. Who's pitching game 3 for Boston? Young enigma Clay Buchholz? WBC burnout Daisuke Matsuzaka? Walking corpse Tim Wakefield? Kelsey Grammar look-alike Paul Byrd? Any of these options is a crap shoot (more like a crap sandwich) for Boston. At the worst, Pettitte keeps the Yankees in the game and lets the rejuvinized bullpen take over. At the best, Pettitte outpitches his inferior counterpart, and the series' momentum swings to New York. Pitching Game 3 also allows Pettitte to be in line to start a potential Game 7 at home. Another huge advantage for the Yankees.

Game 4, ??????
The potential fourth starter for the Yankees has been the main reason "experts" have been doubting their potential for a championship run. This is possibly the most overhyped storyline entering the playoffs in a long time. Regardless of how long either of the first two series go, this mystery starter will get one, yes one, start for the Yankees before the World Series. And this is supposed to end the Yankees season? HA! The Detroit series, if it even gets to a fourth game, will never see the Yankees fourth starter. Joe Girardi recognizes this potential achilles heel, and will undoubtively choose the ALDS with multiple off days, allowing the Yankees to skip their fourth starter. This means this player will likely pitch 1 game at Fenway park. Although it's not an ideal matchup, to concede this game to the Red Sox so early is a grave mistake. How many times in the past five years have we seen teams with no other options turn to inconsistent starters who come up big in the playoffs. Jeff Weaver. Oliver Perez. Anthony Reyes. Any of these names ring a bell? The Yankees will either turn to the high talent, low production kid Joba Chamberlain, or the virtually unknown Chad Gaudin. They will match up with one of the grab bag of back-of-the-rotation starters the Red Sox have been shuffling over the past month. The good news for Yankee fans is that both Chamberlain and Gaudin are strikeout pitchers that can power their way out of jams despite their erratic control. Even better news is that the Yankees long relief may be the best in the biz, and if Joe Girardi is smart (yes, he is), either Game 4 pitcher will be on a very short leash. Bullpen caddys Alfredo Aceves and Phil Hughes will be waiting to clean up the starters' potential messes. The Red Sox' middle men of Manny Delcarmen and Michael Bowden simply do not compare, should the Red Sox fourth starter similarly struggle.

Although I find my analysis disturbingly optimistic, I just can't be as skeptical about the Yankees rotation as many are. This team is playing .700 ball since April with all these "question marks" throwing everyday. With Pettitte serving as the Yankees stopper, the Bombers will have an advantage in the swing game, Game 3. And even if the fourth starter tanks in their one appearance prior to the World Series, that is not nearly enough to sabotage the Yankees season. Third and fourth starters routinely get pounded in the merciless American League, and the Yankees potential opponents share this problem. The reality is that teams around the league would love to have the rotation questions the Yankees allegedly have. They would also love to have the Yankees deep and powerful offense; a lineup that the Tigers and Red Sox pitchers have to deal with... not the Yankees starters.