HE SAID: Goodbye Montero, Not so Sad to See You Go

The big story of the Yankees offseason has clearly been the big Friday the 13th (oooo, spooky) trade of uber-prospect Jesus Montero to the pathetically named (and even more pathetic on the field) Seattle Mariners for right-handed starting pitcher Michael Pineda. *Note: The Yankees did receive an additional prospect in this deal, and parted with part-time starter/long reliever Hector Noesi (who in my opinion will never be a good Major League player)... so, for the purposes of this assessment, I have chosen to ignore these auxilliary pieces and focus on the studs and/or potential studs who have been sent across the continent*

While Yankees GM Brian Cashman continues to wax poetic about how difficult it was to part with Montero, this trade was a no-brainer for the Pinstripes (as I will explain). I don't fault Cashman for his posturing in the media, as he has every reason to play the tragic victim in this January swap. First off, by lauding the virtues of the Yankees top prospects (as he, and the rest of the organization are infamous for doing), the Yankees maintain their stance that the organization is stacked with can't-miss prospects, and they will inevitably leverage this perception to use these "invaluable" assets (although their value is consistently quantified in these trades) as chips in future trades. Additionally, if this trade does prove a steal for the AL West cellar dwellers from Seattle, Cashman can point to his tentativeness to complete the swap as an affirmation of his talent-evaluation abilities. And lastly, for the purposes of future dealings, it is never wise for a GM to describe their trades with the dreaded term for what this really is: an indisputable steal for the New York Yankees.

Here's why:

1. Montero's Ceiling
Yankee talent evaluators who have lauded Montero's hitting abilities since they signed him as a 16-year old "catcher" out of Venezuela have continually used the Manny Ramirez comparison when trying to explain how talented a hitter Jesus has the ability to become. While Montero has shown Ramirez-like flashes (hitting for average, opposite field power, rising to the Major Leagues before his 22nd birthday), there are some serious flaws in this comparison. Firstly, I am always skeptical when a prospect is compared to a top-5 all time hitter or pitcher. While their skillset may profile similarly, what are the odds exactly that they will even come close to matching their "clones" Major League production? Practically zero. Also, Ramirez came to the Bigs as a talented all-around athlete, who could play the outfield, throw, along with showing skills at the plate. Montero has shown himself to be more Bob Hamelin than Mickey Mantle when it comes to how diverse his game is. Lastly, just look at Montero's numbers in the Minors. He has continually disappointed statistically, mixing torrid offensive stretches with comparative periods of ineptitude at the plate.

2. Pineda's Ceiling
I won't pretend to have followed Pineda's young career to the extent that I have Montero's, but there are some facts that cannot be questioned by Sabrmetric numbers and scout's speculations:
a) Pineda is a 22-year old starting pitcher who's had success in the Major Leagues
b) Pineda throws a 97 MPH fastball and a knee-buckling breaking ball
c) Starting pitchers like Pineda are not available on the market
i. And if they are, they are 27+ years old
ii. And if they are, they will cost you $15-20M a year
iii. And if they are, they will cost you a trade haul MUCH larger than Montero, plus an enormous contract

It's no secret that strikeout pitchers with nasty stuff don't come around every day. And when they do, you run the risk that they are a headcase (AJ Burnett, Carl Pavano), that they can't handle the stage of New York (AJ Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano), that they'll cost $100M (Kevin Brown, CC Sabathia), or they'll get injured (Carl Pavano). Some of these factors are yet to be determined when it comes to Pineda. However, in his short time in the majors he has shown himself to be healthy (full MLB season as a 22-year old), as well as confident and effective (All-Star rookie campaign). These are qualities that even the Yankees have found difficult to buy and when they've tried, disaster has ensued.

3. The Yankees Position in the Free Agent Market
While I've been hinting at Montero's defensive limitations, it's seemingly time to put them on the table.... Jesus Montero is a Designated Hitter. At best, he is a horrendous defensive Catcher. Somewhere in the middle, he is an overweight, statuesque First Baseman, a la Carlos Delgado and Pablo Sandoval (both of which once fancied themselves at catchers early in their respective careers). While Montero can have a spectacular offensive Major League career at DH or 1B, in Yankee terms, his value is seriously limited by his defensive limitations. Any given offseason, the Yankees can sign a talented hitting veteran to play a position that requires very limited defense. It happens almost yearly in the Bronx (Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Ruben Sierra, Bobby Abreau). Players like Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano are the rare invaluable players to the Yankees organization; they can put up spectacular offensive numbers while playing solid defense at a crucial defensive position. The Jesus Montero's of the world are tragically replaceable.

4. Playing to Win THIS Year
To steal a line from New York Giants safety Antrel Rolle, "at the end of the day", the New York Yankees are about putting the best team on the field to win a World Series: EVERY single year. Yes, the organization tries to develop young players to both save money and find contributors to the Major League club. Nonetheless, the Yankees constantly strive to find the 25 best guys to win now. And if it isn't working, they will adjust accordingly. There is no denying that the addition of Pineda to the rotation is a huge upgrade that overshadows any lost production (which I highly doubt there will be) from the absense of Montero in the DH role. The Yankees have plenty of players that can rotate into the DH role, most of which have accomplished and will accomplish in the Big Leauges much more than Montero will, whether this season or beyond.

So Jesus. I have been drooling over your potential since they signed you 6 years ago. But potential is exciting only because it is limitless and it is unknown. What truly wins games is proven Major League production. And it is no slight to say that, at this point, the asset aquired trumps the asset lost. And that should make all of Yankee Nation excited about this trade. And we know how "difficult" this was for you Cash, but.... if you look at the facts, it's kind of a no-brainer. And the fact that you were able to pull it off... I say well done!